Long-range forecasts for stock returns vary among experts. Wharton's Mr. Siegel is one of the most optimistic. "When you buy stocks at less than the average valuation, which is 15 [times earnings] over the last 50 years, returns have been even better than the long-run average, which is 6% to 7% after inflation," he says. "From these levels you could expect 8% to 9% average real returns from stocks."
Si a esto último le añades que la compra se centre sobre buenos valores con alto dividendo, imaginaros la rentabilidad que se puede obtener. El artículo compara los bonos con las acciones y se decanta claramente por las acciones, especialmente en un entorno de inflacción en ascenso. Otra más:
For long-term investors, equities may look scarier, but they seem to be poised for stronger returns over time"I certainly wouldn't get out of the stock market," says Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, which offers funds of many types of investments, including stocks and bonds. "The risks we face today are deeply serious," he adds, "but the odds are that stocks will do better" than bonds.
It wouldn't take much for equities as a class to post better returns than they have in recent years. In the so-called lost decade from 2000 through 2009, the return on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, including dividends, averaged a negative 0.9% per year, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. But even at current prices, such large-cap stocks probably won't deliver the spectacular 18% annualized average gains that a generation of buyers enjoyed from 1980 to 1999. Still, right now stocks, particularly dividend payers, look more attractive than bonds—especially if down the road there's resurgent inflation, which whittles away fixed-income returns.
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